Philippine medium-grade nickel ore prices decline, with new changes in supply and demand [SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary]

7.7 Morning Meeting Minutes

Macro News:

(1) On July 3 local time, Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, met the press together with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin and answered questions on the spot. In response to a question about European companies' concerns regarding China's export controls on rare earths, Wang Yi stated that necessary controls on dual-use items are an exercise of national sovereignty and an international obligation. China's policy aligns with international practices and contributes to maintaining world peace and stability. Rare earth exports have never been and should not become an issue between China and Europe. As long as European companies comply with export control regulations and complete necessary procedures, their normal demand will be guaranteed. Chinese authorities have also established a "fast track" for European companies. Those who deliberately hype up this issue between China and Europe have ulterior motives.

(2) The US "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House of Representatives with opposition from two Republican lawmakers. Trump will sign the bill early Saturday morning.

Refined Nickel:

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged between 120,900-123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,300 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was quoted at 2,700-2,900 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was quoted at 0-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) mainly fluctuated above 120,000 yuan/mt today. As of the midday close, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,660 yuan/mt, up 880 yuan/mt or 0.73%.

Geopolitical risks eased, safe-haven sentiment subsided, and six departments including the central bank jointly introduced consumption stimulus measures, boosting market confidence. Nickel prices rebounded recently. Medium and long-term, the nickel surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the rebound is expected to be limited.

Nickel Sulphate:

As of last Friday, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price stood at 27,202 yuan/mt, with quotations ranging between 27,200-27,620 yuan/mt. The average price rose slightly WoW. Demand side, downstream precursor plants maintained sufficient nickel salt inventories, resulting in weak inquiry and transaction sentiment in the overall market this week. Due to weak demand, nickel salt smelters' price acceptance for nickel salts did not improve. Supply side, affected by high raw material costs and weak demand, some nickel salt smelters planned production cuts or shutdowns. Overall upstream sales sentiment remained sluggish. Looking ahead, given persistently weak downstream demand and sluggish upstream sales sentiment, nickel salt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

NPI:

Last week, the SMM average price for 8-12% high-grade NPI was 909.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 5.4 yuan/mtu WoW. The Indonesia NPI FOB index price was $110.9/mtu, down $0.2/mtu WoW. High-grade NPI prices continued to trend weakly during the week. Supply side, domestically, high CIF prices for Philippine nickel ore placed heavy production burdens on smelters. Production loads at northern smelters were reduced, and with declining ore grades from the Philippines, domestic metal content is expected to weaken. In Indonesia, mainstream smelters faced losses, some production lines entered maintenance periods, and some lines capable of producing high-grade nickel matte had already begun production, potentially leading to a decline in Indonesia's high-grade NPI output. Demand side, stainless steel futures rose during the week, spot prices were boosted, but social inventory destocking was limited, and steel mills showed weak sentiment for raw material purchases. Traders had restocking demand, but with limited spot order availability from upstream smelters, transaction prices edged up slightly. Overall, high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

Stainless Steel:

In the spot market, spot prices remained generally stable last week, with narrower fluctuations than in the futures market. However, market sentiment was noticeably influenced by futures movements, with transactions fluctuating alongside futures. Early in the week, lower futures prices hindered the earlier price strength driven by steel mill production cuts, leading to a slight correction and significantly weaker transactions. Later, inquiries and transactions became active again as futures rebounded. With consumption recovering and supply pressure easing due to mill production cuts, stainless steel social inventory further declined WoW by 1.42% to 978,000 mt. Currently, although social inventory has decreased and market confidence has improved compared to earlier periods, with transaction weakness also alleviated, stainless steel remains in the traditional consumption off-season, and downstream end-use demand has not shown significant improvement. Transactions are still heavily influenced by futures and news, with low market acceptance for high-priced goods, keeping spot prices relatively low. Despite the recent decline in social inventory, overall levels remain high, and mill in-plant inventory and front-loading warehouses still face significant destocking pressure, slowing the repair of the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, under current expectations of steel mill production cuts, demand for high-grade NPI has declined, keeping nickel pig iron prices low and weakening cost support for stainless steel.

Nickel Ore:

Philippine nickel ore prices fell as smelter losses limited downstream acceptance of high prices

Philippine medium-grade nickel ore prices declined last week. The CIF price for Philippine laterite nickel ore NI1.3% was $45-47/wmt, and the FOB price was $36-38/wmt. The CIF price for NI1.5% was $58-61/wmt, and the FOB price was $51-53/wmt. Supply side, rainfall in southern Philippine production areas slightly decreased WoW, while rainfall in Palawan's southern region remained unchanged, and Davao's eastern region saw almost no rain. Heavy rainfall was concentrated in Zambales. Overall precipitation had no significant impact on shipments. Nickel ore supply increased. As of July 4, China's nickel ore port inventory rose to 6.63 million wmt as previously shipped vessels arrived. Demand side, NPI prices continued to fall this week. Domestic NPI smelters faced severe losses, dampening raw material procurement sentiment, and demand-side support for nickel ore prices weakened further. Looking ahead, with Indonesia's local nickel ore prices declining, smelters sustaining losses, limited willingness to accept high prices, and rising port inventory, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue weakening.

Indonesia's H1 July benchmark price fell, pyrometallurgy ore enters downtrend

Indonesian nickel ore prices fell again this week. Premiums for Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore remained at $24-26/wmt. The benchmark HMA price for H1 July fell slightly to 14,943 yuan/mt, down 1.83% MoM. The SMM delivery-to-factory price for Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.6% was $50.4-54.4/wmt, down $0.5 or 0.9% WoW. For limonite ore, the SMM delivery-to-factory price for 1.3% ore held steady at $26-28/wmt, unchanged WoW. Pyrometallurgy ore side, supply side, persistent rainfall continued to disrupt mining and transportation in major nickel ore areas of Sulawesi and Halmahera. However, progress was made in RKAB approvals for new quotas and revisions. Approvals are expected to advance in July and August, potentially increasing future nickel ore supply. Demand side, most Indonesian NPI smelters struggled to bear high ore prices, with some smelters facing losses or even cutting production, reducing procurement demand. Overall, despite tight supply due to the rainy season, downward pressure from NPI smelters made it difficult to sustain high prices. Pyrometallurgy ore prices are expected to remain weak. Limonite ore side, supply side, current Sulawesi limonite ore supply maintainedIt is relatively stable and can meet the current market demand. In addition, significant progress in the approval of RKAB is expected within the next few months, which may drive a further increase in supply. Demand side, the production of MHP projects is normal, and the demand for limonite ore remains stable. In the long term, with the potential progress in the approval of supplementary RKAB quotas, it is expected that limonite ore prices may be in the doldrums.